Wednesday, October 2, 2013


Iran has been the focus of UN nuclear weapons inspectors and sanctions since before 2006. In fact, the US has had sanctions on Iran since the 1979 revolution, according to the State Department website. However, in 2006 the UN Security Council passed Resolution 1696 and imposed international sanctions after Iran refused to suspend its nuclear enrichment program. In fact, the 2010 US foreign ministry’s annual report on state sponsors of terrorism Iran is described as “the most active sponsor of terrorism”. The US accuses Iran of supporting Hamas, Islamic Jihad, People’s Front for Freedom in Palestine as well as Lebanon’s Hezbollah and its leader. Iran is also accused of supporting the Taliban in Afghanistan and paramilitary groups in Iraq. So it looks to me like Iran is happy to fight proxy wars against the US across the region. I don’t know how affective these sanctions are, but they haven’t changed significantly since 2010 according to the UN website, so I doubt they are building significant pressure internally. You have to ask yourself, why would Iran a belligerent hater of Western countries, decide to negotiate with the US regarding its nuclear program all of a sudden?

It could be that the flimsy red line drawn by President Obama regarding Syrian use of chemical weapons was mis-translated as an actual threat to invade and destroy the Syrian regime, but that would mean the subsequent five times Sec Kerry spoke of an “extremely limited strike”, with “no boots on the ground” also received very poor translation. I think we can put that option to bed as very unlikely. It’s possible that the sanctions have actually taken hold so harshly that the new Pres of Iran is going to turn against the Supreme Leader of Iran and risk certain horrible death, by negotiating away the nuclear capability they have sought since the wall came down in Eastern Germany. I think we can put that option to bed as very unlikely as well. So why oh why did Iran decide to take Pres Obama up on his offer to negotiate now? It is so simple, even an average middle-class American in Alaska can figure it out. 

The leadership of Iran has made a calculation that America is weak. Iran thinks Pres Obama has exposed his squishy resolve to use military force in the arena of WMD use and proliferation. Additionally, they have hit the home stretch in nuclear weapon development. The only thing standing between Iran and the bomb is the alliance between the US and Israel. The best way to deter that threat is to divide the two countries. One would think Pres Obama, the most divisive figure in American politics, would recognize his own game plan when used against him. However, like any narcissist, his hubris blinds him to the tactics with which he is most familiar. Iran will play the diplomatic game with the same game plan used by nK (who by the way has their bomb); delay and distract until they too reach their goal. As a result of the short-sighted and half-baked foreign policy of the Community Organizer in Chief, Iran will indeed go nuclear in less than two years. Unless Israel acts alone as it did against the Syrian nuclear program, the Iraqi nuclear program, and again against the Syrian chemical weapons proliferation program, Iran will get the bomb. One of these times Israel will decide to act to late, or come up short on their objective. We will be faced with a nuclear arms race in the Middle-East.

No comments:

Post a Comment